Scientists find errors in hypothesis linking solar flares to global temperature

first_img Citation: Scientists find errors in hypothesis linking solar flares to global temperature (2010, April 7) retrieved 18 August 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2010-04-scientists-errors-hypothesis-linking-solar.html More information: M. Rypdal and K. Rypdal. “Testing Hypotheses about Sun-Climate Complexity Linking.” Physical Review Letters 104, 128501 (2010). DOI:10.1103/PhysRevLett.104.128501 (PhysOrg.com) — The field of climate science is nothing if not complex, where a host of variables interact with each other in intricate ways to produce various changes. Just like any other area of science, climate science is far from being fully understood. As an example, a new study has discredited a previous hypothesis suggesting the existence of a link between solar flares and changes in the earth’s global temperature. The new study points out a few errors in the previous analysis, and concludes that the solar and climate records have very different properties that do not support the hypothesis of a sun-climate complexity linking. In a handful of studies published in Physical Review Letters between 2003 and 2008, a team from Duke University and the Army Research Office including Nicola Scafetta and Bruce West analyzed data that appeared to show that solar flares have a significant influence on global temperature. Solar flares, which are large explosions in the sun’s atmosphere that are powered by magnetic energy, vary in time from a few per month to several per day. Although solar flares occur near sunspots, their frequency variation occurs on a much shorter time scale than the 11-year sunspot cycle. In their studies, the researchers’ results seemed to show that data from solar flare activity correlates with changes in the global temperature on a short time scale. Specifically, their analysis showed that the two time records can both be characterized by the same Lévy walk process.However, in the new study, which is also published in Physical Review Letters, Martin Rypdal and Kristoffer Rypdal of the University of Tromso in Norway have reexamined the data and the previous analysis and noticed some shortcomings. One of the biggest causes of concern is that the previous analysis did not account for larger trends in factors that affect solar flares and global temperature. For instance, the solar cycle has its 11-year periodic trend, where periods of lots of sunspots cause larger numbers of solar flares. Likewise, the global temperature anomaly has numerous other factors (a “multi-decadal, polynomial trend”) that impacts global temperature fluctuations. By not detrending this data, the analysis resulted in abnormally high values of certain variables that pointed to Lévy walk processes. By estimating the untrended data, Rypdal and Rypdal hypothesized that the solar flare records might be described by a Lévy flight, while the global temperature anomaly might obey a distribution called persistent fractional Brownian motion. In contrast to a previous analysis, a new study has shown that the distributions of (a) the global temperature anomaly by month since 1880 and (b) the solar flare index by day over a few solar cycles are fundamentally different. One feature the detrended data do have in common is self-similarity: the probability density functions are the same on different time scales, which means that neither can be described as Lévy walks. Image credit: Rypdal and Rypdal. The Sun Loses its Spotscenter_img “The first thing we do when we approach a time series with a strong random component is to perform standard statistical analyses like plotting of probability density distributions on different time scales,” Martin Rypdal told PhysOrg.com. “We look at the shape of these rescaled distributions. If the signal is statistically self-similar, it looks almost the same on all time scales. [Here, we’ve shown] that the solar flare signal and the global temperature signal are both self-similar, but their distributions are very different, and so are the exponents used for rescaling. We were very surprised that Scafetta and West never show such results in their papers. It seems that they have designed all their tests with the purpose of proving a wanted result, and deliberately avoided analysis that points in other directions.”As the researchers explain in their paper, the finding that the scaling behavior of both the solar flare activity and the global temperature remain self-similar for large changes in scale provides evidence that the data sets cannot be described as Lévy walks.The Norwegian researchers also noted that the previous analysis had errors beyond the lack of detrending. Most significantly, they found that the analysis could not distinguish between Lévy walks, Lévy flights and Gaussian processes such as fractional Brownian motion. For this reason, the analysis would have concluded that some other data sets were described by Lévy walks when they were not. To demonstrate, the Norwegian researchers created a fake data set from a fractional Brownian motion model with a trend. When they applied the previous analysis to this data, the analysis described the data as a Lévy walk. Last, the Norwegian researchers formulated a new analysis which could distinguish between these three different processes, and applied the analysis to the detrended solar flare data sets. The results revealed that the solar flare records actually follow a Lévy flight, as they had hypothesized. Also, by applying the analysis to detrended global temperature anomalies, the researchers found that the data is well described as persistent fractional Brownian motion, as they also hypothesized. As the researchers explain, the results provide more evidence to support the supposedly controversial theory of human-induced global warming.”The theory of anthropogenic global warming consists of a set of logically interconnected and consistent hypotheses,” Martin Rypdal said. “This means that if a cornerstone hypothesis is proven to be false, the entire theory fails. A corresponding theory of global warming of solar origin does not exist. What does exist is a set of disconnected, mutually inconsistent, ad hoc hypotheses. If one of these is proven to be false, the typical proponent of solar warming will pull another ad hoc hypothesis out of the hat. This has been the strategy of Scafetta and West over the years, and we have no illusion that our paper will put them to silence. However, the only scientifically valid strategy to confront these new hypotheses is to shoot down every new missile as they come in, using the most advanced weapons at hand. We believe that this operation was successfully accomplished with respect to the complexity linking hypothesis, but there will be many more battles to be fought until the issue of the contribution of solar variability to recent global warming is settled.” Copyright 2010 PhysOrg.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed in whole or part without the express written permission of PhysOrg.com. Explore further This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.last_img read more

Researchers suggest magicians mirror tricks could be used as large scale cloaking

first_img Cloaking devices have become an item of interest to both the general public and physicists. The Harry Potter movies showed what a cloaking device might look like, while breakthroughs in metamaterials have allowed for the creation of real cloaking materials. Unfortunately, the real materials only work for certain wavelengths of optical frequencies and for very small sample sizes. Another, less high-tech approach is to use mirrors to make objects “disappear” as magicians have been doing for years. That’s what Howell and his son have done.Cloaking devices all work under the same principles—they bend light in such a way as to cause an object to be hidden from view. A simple example would be a small island in a river. Water is split at one end of the island, moves past on either side, and is then reconnected at the other end. If the water were replaced with light, the island would appear to be invisible from the point of view of an observer (in two dimensions, of course). (Phys.org) —John Howell, a Professor of Physics at the University of Rochester, and his teenage son, have uploaded a paper to the preprint server arXiv in which they suggest that some common magicians’ tricks could be used to create large cloaking devices. They describe three types of simple cloaking devices: one made of Plexiglass and water, another of inexpensive lenses, and a third constructed using ordinary mirrors. © 2013 Phys.org Citation: Researchers suggest magicians’ mirror tricks could be used as large scale cloaking devices (w/ video) (2013, June 10) retrieved 18 August 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2013-06-magicians-mirror-large-scale-cloaking.html Journal information: arXiv Researchers create first 3D invisibility cloak Howell and his son aren’t suggesting they’ve invented anything new; rather, by building and demonstrating some simple cloaking devices, they are showing that such devices might be useful for real world applications, such as hiding satellites. They fully acknowledge a major limitation of their devices, namely that they only work when viewed from a specific angle. But that’s not the point. The real point is that age-old technology could be updated for use in practical modern applications. If a mirror-based cloaking device were put into space to hide a satellite, for example, it could be computer controlled to keep it at the proper angle as it circled the globe. Even simpler would be “hiding” satellites that hover in a geosynchronous orbit.Such cloaking devices, they note, would work across the entire visible spectrum and could be made in virtually any size and, perhaps best of all, could be made inexpensively using materials that are already well understood. More information: Simple, broadband, optical spatial cloaking of very large objects, arXiv:1306.0863 [physics.optics] arxiv.org/abs/1306.0863AbstractWe demonstrate three simple cloaking devices that can hide very large spatial objects over the entire visible spectrum using only passive, off-the-shelf optics. The cloaked region for all of the devices exceeds 10^6 mm3 with the largest exceeding 10^8 mm3. Although uni-directional, these cloaks can hide the cloaked object, even if the object is transversely or self-illuminated. Owing to the small usable solid angle, but simple scaling, these cloaks may be of value in hiding small field-of-view objects such as mid- to high-earth orbit satellites. A cloaking device based on Snell’s law. Credit: arXiv:1306.0863 [physics.optics] Explore further This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.last_img read more

Taj literature festival

first_imgRenowned writers like Ruskin Bond and Shobha De, director Muzaffar Ali, humourist Surendra Sharma and scores of literary luminaries from the Braj area will be star attractions at a three-day literature festival to be held in Agra from 1 February at the sprawling campus of 167-year-old St Peter’s College. The book festival  will project the contribution of the writers, poets, cultural artistes of the Braj region – spanning Mathura, Agra, Aligarh, Etah and Firozabad – on the national canvas.last_img

Delhi casts its shortsweet dramatic effect

first_imgIt’s that time of the year when all theatre enthusiasts (actors, directors, viewers, other artists) come together on a common platform to display, hone and enjoy the stories put up on stage. Popularly called the Short and Sweet theatre festival, it surely manages to bring out live emotions- sad, happy, surprise etc amongst the audience present.’The Short and Sweet Theatre Festival is back again in the city to woo viewers with its short 10-minute plays. In this age of fast food, 10-minute play is perfect to hold the attention of the audience. It is crisp and goes straight to the point without beating around the bush for long,’ says Alex Broun, director of the festival. Also Read – ‘Playing Jojo was emotionally exhausting’The history of the festival dates back to- Australia in 2002. It is a series of 10-minute plays put together for people with less time and attention span. The festival came to India in 2010 with the help of Australian Government through the Australia India Council and the Australia International Cultural Council.The 10 day festival which is scheduled from 21 November to 30 November is being held across three venues- India Habitat Centre, Epicentre, Gurgaon and India Cultural Centre and  kick started with some fabulous short plays like Table For Two, Kaalikh, Speed Dating For Amateurs, The Actress’ Dilemma, Last Drinks. Currently in its third season there are around 40 plays selected to be put up on stage.  Also Read – Leslie doing new comedy special with Netflix’The response to the festival this time has been immense though it has just began. Even the quality of plays have improved and were well performed on the starting day. The main aim has been to introduce young budding talent in the theatre circuit and get them noticed,’ says Prashant Sehgal, festival director.One of the best received plays at the fest was Table For Two. The play centers on a funny situation around a table where two people are sitting.’My play was set in an urban setting with an underlying solitude in each one of us and how a man and a woman going through unfortunate incidents in life find its vent after meeting each other at a coffee shop,’ said Maheep Singh, director.’I was overwhelmed with the response for my play which came as a pleasant surprise. I hope we get maximum votes when the result comes out on Monday,’ he added. Another one making its way through hearts and head of people was Kaalikh. ‘The play inclined towards a social message talked about the much disputed topic religion. Though all religions preach peace and prosperity but the real religion is only humanity, which needs to be accepted universally. The story line was based on a school master and his trails during babri masjid demolition. I had to face a bit of challenge with respect to some actors and the element of lighting during the performance,’ said Abhinav Sabyasachi, dirtector. Some of the plays to watch out for are Sweater, We Need To Talk and Don’t You Rhyme When You Commit A Crime. Don’t miss it!last_img read more

Two car lifters arrested from Nadia stolen car recovered

first_imgKolkata: Two car lifters, who used to operate in Salt Lake, were arrested from Ranaghat in Nadia.Police said they had initiated a probe after receiving a complaint from a resident of AE block in Salt Lake. The complainant, Santanu Banerjee, had lodged a complaint with the Bidhannagar North police station stating that his car bearing registration number WB 06A 4249 was stolen.He informed the police that the car was stolen at around 8.30 am on April 21. Also Read – Heavy rain hits traffic, flightsThe car was stolen away from in front of his house in Salt Lake. Police initiated a probe after registering a case on charges of theft under section 379 of the Indian Penal Code.After preliminary investigation, police came to know that the car was taken out of the district without losing anytime. They had gone through footages of several surveillance cameras in the area.The Bidhannagar police had also initiated exchange of information with their counterparts in adjacent Also Read – Speeding Jaguar crashes into Merc, 2 B’deshi bystanders killeddistricts in this connection and based on a tip off, policemen conducted a raid at Cuppers Camp near Ranaghat in Nadia.During the raid, police arrested an 18-year-old boy and one Rittik Mukherjee. The stolen car was also recovered. Cops are now trying to ascertain whether they had stolen more cars from any parts of Salt Lake and any other adjacent areas.Police are also trying to find out whether the duo is involved in any big car lifting racket and had a connection with any inter-state racket.Police also suspect involvement of a local in the case and the investigating officers also feel that the duo had kept a watch on the car for the past few days before committing the crime. They also did a reccee of the area to prepare a route through which they can easily flee with the car. Police have taken necessary steps to check recurrence of such incident in the area.last_img read more

3 die due to electrocution while fishing in Bishnupur

first_imgKolkata: Three youth were killed due to electrocution while fishing in a pond in South 24-Parganas’ Bishnupur police station area on late Monday night.The incident took place in Mamudpur village of Bishnupur and has triggered tension among the villagers. Police said one of the victims Dip Das took a pond on lease for pisciculture. He used to do fishing from the pond and sell them in the local markets. According to police, Das along with his associates used to often catch fish from the pond during the night. Also Read – Heavy rain hits traffic, flightsLike other days, the victim along with two others, whose identities are yet to be ascertained, went to the pond in Mamudpur village on late Monday night.Police said a halogen light was fitted against a tree near the pond. Das and his two associates were electrocuted while trying to catch fish. Police suspect that an electrical wire fell into the pond and this led to the incident. Locals found the victims in the pond and informed the police. They were rushed to Amtala Gramin Hospital where the victims were declared brought dead. Also Read – Speeding Jaguar crashes into Merc, 2 B’deshi bystanders killedAccording to hospital sources, the victims died on late Monday night, minutes after they came in contact with the water of the pond. Police have started a detailed probe in this regard. They are also investigating into how the electrical wire fell in the pond.Locals have told police that they did not see the other two persons earlier. They might have been brought to the place from neighbouring village by Das. Police are trying to confirm their identities. Police have sent their bodies for the postmortem examination.last_img read more

Deols should promote films well SRK to Dharmendra

first_imgLegendary actor Dharmendra says superstar Shah Rukh Khan had once advised that Deols should promote and market their films well to grab eyeballs.At a time when B-town celebrities leave no stone turned while promoting their films, Deols have always maintained a low profile which seems to have affected the outcome.“Apne was a good film and there was no film like this in sports genre. Lot of films  in sports genre got support from media but our film did not. I remember Shah Rukh Khan had once told me I should have promoted… marketed it well to grab attention,” said Dharmendra.“I think there has to be a proper way to promote a film. I can’t blow my own trumpet. I don’t feel that is right,” he said. Dharmendra’s actor son Sunny Deol also does not believe in promotion.last_img read more

Presidency convocation shifted outside campus due to agitation

first_imgKolkata: The convocation of the Presidency University was on Tuesday shifted outside the campus in the wake of agitation by a section of students over hostel accommodation. Expressing disappointment over blocking of the varsity main gate by the protesting students on Monday, Vice-Chancellor Anuradha Lohia said, “We had to shift the venue of the convocation from the university campus to Nandan Complex to ensure that the security of the two dignitaries, who would be conferred honorary degrees, was not put at risk.” Also Read – Rain batters Kolkata, cripples normal life The agitating students have been demanding immediate accommodation in Hindu Hostel. “It is extremely unfortunate we could not hold the function in Presidency campus itself and had to shift, due to the agitation of a section of students,” she said. Lohia said the varsity authorities had informed Governor Keshari Nath Tripathi, who is also the Chancellor of the university, about the developments and he suggested that “we should settle for a venue other than the campus and the Raj Bhawan”. Also Read – Speeding Jaguar crashes into Mercedes car in Kolkata, 2 pedestrians killed The Governor, however, was not present at the convocation, which lasted for around an hour, due to other preoccupations. Eminent scientist and Bharat Ratna recipient C N R Rao and veteran actor Soumitra Chatterjee were conferred DSc and D Litt (Honoris Causa), respectively, at the sixth convocation of Presidency University on Tuesday. Rao called upon the students to come to an understanding with the authorities. “This is a highly reputed institution and students are also part of the institution,” he said. Chatterjee told reporters that the students must sit for talks, and a decision has to be taken keeping in mind the interest of everyone. “From whatever I have seen, the Vice-Chancellor is a pragmatic person. Students should also be pragmatic in their approach,” he said. The decision to hold the sixth convocation at state-run cultural complex Nandan was prompted after the section of students, agitating for immediate accommodation to Hindu Hostel, bolted the varsity main gate from inside on Monday, forcing the VC and other faculty members to leave without entering the campus. “I fail to realise why some of the students are insisting on allowing them at the Hindu Hostel on an immediate basis, when the place is yet to be declared fit for use by concerned agencies like the PWD. There are certain protocols involved in maintenance of a property of an institution and my hands are tied,” Lohia said. “What will be their priority? Pursuing studies or demanding accommodation in an under-repair hostel when they have been given an alternative accommodation already at New Town?” the VC wondered. One of the agitating students, Ujan, however, said they did not disturb the convocation programme. “We have not disrupted the convocation and today the main gate of the university has been kept open to facilitate organising the convocation,” he said. This was the second time the annual convocation had to be shifted outside the campus after 2016, when it was held at Rabindra Sadan, a Presidency University official said.last_img read more

Pavan Malhotrathe untold story

first_imgHonouring and felicitating talented cinematic personalities not only marks the beginning of a revolution in cinema but also has the power to change the face of new age film industry. An attempt to make this happen, India International Centre, Film Club, organised a Retrospective of Pavan Malhotra’s 25 years journey in films from January 11 to 21.An unassuming, modest luminary of the Indian small and silver screen, Pavan has to his credit a prodigious body of work. He enjoys instant recognition, born out of stellar performances as the simpleton Hari in Nukkad, Ghunuram in Bagh Bahadur, Salim in Salim Langde Pe Mat Ro, Tiger Memon in Black Friday, Kareena Kapoor’s uncle in Jab We Met, the benevolent coach in Bhag Milkha Bhag. In the south, for his performance in the Telugu film Aithe (2003), the British film, Brothers in Trouble, that enjoyed eminence at the London Film Festival as well as at the Berlin and San Francisco Film Festivals.  Also Read – ‘Playing Jojo was emotionally exhausting’Other films that quickly followed included, Antarnaad (1991), Tarpan (The Absolution) (1995), Pardes (1997) and Earth (1998). These firmly entrenched him in audiences’ mind as a powerful character actor. His body of work is impressive, with a host of no-nonsense roles. Some other notable performances of Pavan Malhotra’s include De Taali (2008), Delhi-6 (2009), Road to Sangam (2010) and Badmaash Company (2010). His role of a religious head trying to make a political fortune out of strife in Road to Sangam, highlighted his immense potential as an actor.  Also Read – Leslie doing new comedy special with NetflixWith such variety behind him, he can still surprise the audience with his versatility. He works with a few definite beliefs that include, “You have to learn to be a good actor. The main thing, however, is to feel it in you. Otherwise, the emotion is not reflected in your eyes. The body language is also very important.”Pavan Malhotra imbibed the critical pillars of his character namely discipline, dedication, commitment and hard work from his father – a strict disciplinarian, who ran a successful machine tools business. It was expected of Pavan, that he would take up the reins of the family business, however his innate interest was in observing people and decoding their behavior and mannerisms, a habit he found very fundamental to his renditions as an actor in later years.  His commercially successful films include Shaitan (2011), Bhindi Bazaar (2011), Ek Thi Daayan (2013) and Bang Bang (2014). Owing to his performances, several prestigious awards naturally made their way to Pavan Malhotra’s repertoire over the years. A few of the awards won by him include the BFJA Award for Bagh Bahadur (Bengali) – 1990, National Award for Fakir (Hindi) – 1998, Nandi Award and Filmfare award for Best Villian – Aithe (Telugu) – 2003, Dainik Jagran Award for Best Actor and Dadasaheb Phalke Film Festival Award for Best Character Actor for Children of War – 1984, and last but not the least-the Best Actor Award in a foreign language film at the St. Tropez International Film Festival, France is also to his credit.Pavan Malhotra’s recent films of prominence include, Punjab 1984 (2014), Children of War (2014) and the biopic, Eh Janam Tumhare Lekhe (2015) based on the life of Bhagat Pooran Singh, the founder of the Pingalwara movement.last_img read more

S Bengal to experience strong winds MeT

first_imgKolkata: A cyclonic storm that is said to hit the coastal areas of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh may not have a major impact on the state but the South Bengal districts will witness a strong wind measuring around 70-80 km per hour, predicted the Regional Meteorological Centre at Alipore on Thursday.An alert has been issued to the coastal districts of the state and the fishermen have been asked not to venture into the sea till Saturday. An alert has also been sent to the East Midnapore district administration asking them to impose restrictions on bathing of visitors in the rough sea at Digha and other nearby beach towns in the district. Also Read – Rain batters Kolkata, cripples normal lifeThe Group-of-Minister (GoM) which was constituted by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee before going on a foreign tour, held a meeting at Nabanna on Thursday chalking out plans on how to combat the cyclonic situation in the state. It would be monitored from the control room of the disaster management department at Nabanna. The state Irrigation department is also keeping a tab on the situation. The senior officials of the state Irrigation department are in constant touch with their counterparts at the Centre. Also Read – Speeding Jaguar crashes into Mercedes car in Kolkata, 2 pedestrians killedAccording to the MeT office prediction, a low pressure trough has formed over West Central Bay of Bengal which will further intensify due to cyclonic storm, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall in some parts of South Bengal. It was also learnt the people from various South Bengal districts including the city may encounter a strong wind. The cyclonic storm will have no major effect on Bengal as it would hit the neighbouring districts including Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. The situation is expected to improve from Saturday, a weather official said. The state government has already taken all the preventive measures to deal with the situation. All the concerned departments have been asked to be on alert and closely monitor the situation. There is absolutely no need to panic, a senior government official said.last_img read more